$4,465: Gold looks to regain 21-day SMA amid sustained USD weakness

• Gold stages a decent rebound toward $4,450 in Asia on Tuesday.
• US Dollar hits two-week lows as USD/JPY sell-off counters hawkish Fed bets, Iran risks.
• Acceptance above 21-day SMA at $4,465 is critical for Gold bulls amid bullish RSI.

Gold has snapped a two-day losing streak early Tuesday, staging a decent comeback toward $4,450 after finding strong buyers below the $4,400 level.

Gold is looking to resume its recovery from four-week lows of $4,283 hit last week, capitalizing on sustained US Dollar weakness across the board.

The US Dollar sits at two-week lows against its six major peers, as the ongoing USD/JPY sell-off counters hawkish bets around the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook and Iran’s retaliation warnings.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its rally to seven-month highs versus the Greenback after Japan’s wage growth data and second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revision bolstered expectations for a faster pace of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) tightening.

This aggressively hawkish BoJ repricing continues to weigh on the USD/JPY pair and the USD, acting as a tailwind for the bright metal.

However, it remains to be seen if Gold sustains its recovery momentum, as Oil prices remain elevated at seven-week highs, keeping inflation concerns and Fed rate hike bets alive.

The black gold stays underpinned by fresh Iranian threats in the Persian Gulf.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned after the US and Iran traded strikes on shipping over the weekend, "strike our assets, and you get struck."

On Tuesday, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, reissued dual economic and military threats on X.

Later in the day, Gold could experience volatility as US traders return after the extended weekend and react to the geopolitical headlines, while repositioning ahead of Friday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, which could seal in a rate hike next week.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,425.55, holding a mild bullish bias as it sits above the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at roughly $4,255.70 and $4,347.13, respectively, while remaining capped by the 21-day SMA near $4,465.07. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 52 suggests modest positive momentum, hinting that buyers retain the upper hand so long as price holds over the underlying moving-average support band.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 21-day SMA around $4,465.07, with the longer-term 200-day SMA higher up near $4,536.87 acting as a subsequent barrier if bulls extend the advance. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA near $4,347.13, ahead of the deeper 50-day SMA support zone around $4,255.70, where a break would undermine the current constructive tone and expose a more pronounced corrective phase.